Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Bearish Sentiment Lacking

In the Barron's article from last weekend by Alan Abelson, titled "Where Did All the Bears Go?", he relates the latest Investors' Intelligence poll in which 57.3% of the respondents were bullish, versus 15.7% who were bearish.  The bearish reading is the 17th lowest percentage in the history of this survey which dates back to 1975 (more than 1800 weeks).  The spread of 41.6% between bulls and bears was last experienced in October 1987, when many general U.S. equity indices including the S&P 500 completed their all-time peaks.  The author also cites the recent low S&P 500 dividend yield of 1.86%, which is just above its all-time historic low reading of 1.76% from October 2007.  The author has been derided in the media as being a "perma bear", but these are facts rather than opinions and the comparison with the last bull market peak from 2007 are valid.
 
Elsewhere, a recent Market Vane survey showed that just 7% of traders were bullish towards the U.S. dollar index.  With this type of sentiment, it is doubtful that the USD can fall much farther.  Who is still left to sell?  Even in the face of all this negative sentiment and news, the USD has so far refused to collapse.  Contrarian investors know that the most overcrowded trades must always fail in the end.  A sharp rally for the U.S. dollar has significantly negative implications for risk assets such as stocks, corporate bonds and commodities including gold, silver, copper and crude oil.
 
Lastly, I received this short message from a coworker and friend of mine today: "BUY THE DIP IT IS FOOL PROOF!"  The market is down today, and amateur investors will continue to step in and buy what they perceive to be bargains due to the recently lowered price, but eventually the bottom will fall out and prices will go significantly lower.  It is only a matter of time.

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