China currently has the mother of all real estate bubbles. As pointed out in earlier posts, this bubble is already starting to burst. With it, wealth of a nation and the price of world wide risk assets will eventually burst as well. It is fascinating to look into the factors that created this bubble, and this article is excellent: Decades of the "one child policy" has left China with a large imbalance of men to women. Therefore, women can be very discerning in their relationships, and they demand a man who owns an apartment. If you are a Chinese man and you do not own your own pad, then chances are you are single and you will stay that way. This is incredible! Chinese women value wealth and real estate over anything else. Emotionally, that creates a huge incentive to own real estate at any cost even though prices are exorbitant. In addition, the article correctly points out that the Chinese do not have anywhere else to invest their capital. Their money will lose purchasing power if it is put into the bank due to negative real interest rates. The only other option appears to be housing. The article is interesting for a number of other factors as well. It points out that over 70% of women in China value money over any other qualities in a man, while 50% of men value beauty the most in a woman. In addition, by the next decade, there will be 24 million single men without a partner due to the shortage of women in China. I believe this is insightful into the Chinese psyche. Given these facts, it makes perfect sense why things like "business ethics" or "saving the environment" do not appear to be important priorities in general for the Chinese when it comes to doing business and earning money. |
Friday, April 22, 2011
Chinese Real Estate Bubble
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