I was about to shut off my computer earlier today, when I came across this gem of a news article: As a contrarian investor, I am very happy to see this type of article featured in the media. We have had the biggest bull market surge since the Great Depression, and this is the kind of article that one would expect to find at or near a market top, preceding a trend change. It is just dripping with complacency and optimism, and there is not a hint that the general direction of stocks could possibly be down. They do not ring a bell at the top, but this is pretty close. Consider that in 2007, when the market was at an important peak, the media was full of articles about the "goldilocks" economy. Of course, instead of goldilocks, we got the three bears. In late 2008/early 2009, as the market was plummeting, the media was full of articles about people cutting back on their consumption and about "recessionistas". I even remember one article urging new parents to use cloth diapers on their babies in order to save money. Of course, we instead got the biggest bull market since the Great Depression. Today, we have an article telling people that they "have to participate" in this market and that the constant switching of cabins on the Titanic instead of leaving the ship is "clearly is a winning strategy". A contrarian investor knows that it is not different this time. |
Monday, March 21, 2011
The Bell is Ringing at the Top
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