The Pain

Today is not a fun day to be a contrarian investor.  This week has not been a fun week.  These last two weeks have not been fun.  These last two months have not been fun.  These last six months have not been fun.  Since September 2010, it has not been fun to be a contrarian investor.  Do you hear me?   Today is the day that I officially have given up hope for the near term.  The markets have risen yet again, and it seems that just about every risk asset (except, of course, for those assets that I own) had a big up day.  Several leading indicators such as KOL, commodity currencies such as the AUD and BRR, and the Russell 2000 all reached new 52 week highs today.  Several emerging market stocks such as South Korea (EWY) also made new 52 week highs.  The etf of gold mining shares (GDX) vastly outperformed the underlying commodity (GLD) - another positive sign for the bulls.  The only negative sign I can see is that copper was down which may be significant.  Also, the semi conductor stocks underperformed while long dated treasury yields fell.   But all in all, I feel like is March 2009 all over again except that I am short stocks now as opposed to being long two years ago.  The grind has got me down big time.  Every day, day after day, has been a struggle.  I have always had hope and expectations that the market would decline "over the next several weeks".  For the past six months, this has not happened ever and I have been creamed.  My hopes and dreams have been (temporarily) dashed.   This has affected my life in many ways, the majority of which are not good.  I continue to hang in there and hope for better days that might not come for a long time.  I dug my hole, and then I dug it deeper, and then I went deeper and deeper, and then I went deeper still, and here I am today.  It is what it is.  Tomorrow is a new day and will probably be just as frustrating if not more so.  I have come to expect this.    The end of the quarter buying is powerful and it does not appear that it will ever stop.  Stocks only go up.  That is the new normal.  Until, of course, they don't go up and they plunge.  One day that might happen.  I can only hope.