Thursday, March 17, 2011

BOJ Intervention

Stocks were up today, with the S&P 500 closing at 1,273.72 (+1.34%).  The primary trend in the markets is DOWN, but a contrarian perspective tells us there will be frequent sharp recoveries after all dips.  This servers the purpose of confusing amateur investors into buying stocks when they should be selling or selling short.  The next two years should feature a pattern of lower highs followed by lower lows.  This pattern will be a grind for all market participants (except top corporate insiders).
 
The real interesting news happened after hours where the Bank of Japan made a massive intervention in the forex market.  Earlier in the day, the yen had slumped to an all time low against the dollar, below 79, and this intervention sent the yen flying 3% to back over 81.  It is trading at 81.1150 as I write this.  It will be interesting to see how long an effect this intervention has on the yen.  If history is any guide, the effect will be temporary at best and then the trend will reassert itself.  The forex market is so huge that it is impossible for a single entity, even a government, to manipulate it.  The Asian markets and all risk asset futures are green right now, but it will be interesting to see how things look tomorrow morning.

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