Complacency

For the contrarian investor, the link below is classic.  Here is a poll from last week:   http://carnalstock.com/stock-market-poll/2011/03/poll-is-sp-forming-v-type-bottom-or-w-type-bottom/   Notice that this poll asks which type of a bottom is forming.  Is it a V-bottom where, after having moved down, the market will now move straight up?  Or is it a W-bottom where the market will make one more down move before moving straight up?   Notice that both conditions presume that the market will move straight up.  There is no mention of the possibility that the market may move down.  This is text book complacency and it is very prevalent.  The bulls are back and everyone is asking how much higher the market will be going.  This past week showed the biggest loss of the VXX in percentage terms ever.  Everyone is looking up, very few are looking down.  The amateur masses are looking up.  Contrarian investors, like the smart money (i.e. top corporate insiders), are looking down.